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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."