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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.